Tag Archives: gateway

Note to readers: look for me at @TheDaily_Vaper

by Carl V Phillips

Those of you who follow this blog but do not follow me on social media may be unaware that I am now writing for The Daily Vaper, a unit of The Daily Caller newspaper. Since the time and energy I spend doing that is basically the same time and energy I spent on this blog, there may not be a lot here. Not none, but a lot less.

I will try to do a periodic post here to index my Daily Vaper articles, particularly calling attention to the ones that would have been good fits for this blog.

I have written two antiTHRlies-style science lesson articles for Daily Vaper so far. One is an expansion on part of my previous post here, that debunked the analysis of a paper by Robert West. That Daily Vaper science lesson offers a terse presentation of the various causal pathways from vaping to smoking cessation. One of the major flaws in the West paper is that the authors (without saying they were doing so) incorrectly assumed that four of the five pathways did not exist.

The other science lesson is my briefest analysis ever of why almost everything you read about a gateway effect is wrong.

I wrote an article about the latest in the formaldehyde-in-vapor wars, featuring Igor Burstyn and Clive Bates, which is similar to the science analysis pieces I have written here.

I am rather proud of two pieces about absurd and cruel research FDA was doing on monkeys in pursuit of their policy goals of mandating lower-nicotine products. The first reported on how FDA reportedly caved to pressure to end the cruel and useless research. The second, based on an analysis of FOIA-obtained documents about the research, reported that the research was actually probably already completed, or at least close to it. It then assessed the research protocol to glean insight into how FDA is going to spin this research to further their political goals. In particular, FDA is planning to suggest this research — which looked at how much nicotine tortured monkeys (captive, isolated, bored, restrained) will inject into their artery by pushing a lever — somehow tells us something about human tobacco use behavior. I hope to get more documents and follow up on these.

I am equally proud of a series on FDA’s registration system, which e-cigarette manufacturers (a category that includes anyone who mixes e-cigarette liquid) are racing to use to register all their products. The series reports on what a disaster the system has proven to be: bad planning, bad design, technical failures, and terrible instructions and customer support. In particular, I reported this:

It has long been clear that the FDA does not have the capacity to expand from the traditional tobacco products they regulate, which amount to a few thousand. There’s simply no way they can handle registering – let alone regulating – millions of vapor products. The Consumer Advocates for Smoke-free Alternatives Association noted this when commenting on the proposed deeming regulation in 2014. In 2015 comments about the deeming regulation presented to the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (the internal government watchdog), CASAA warned that, “FDA does not even have the capacity to handle the resulting registration paperwork.” This has proven to be the case.

I could not say it in a proper news article, but I will go ahead and take credit here, noting that I wrote both of those linked documents. Let this be a lesson to anyone who doubts my predictions :-).

Anyway, the articles are here, here, here, and here. The above quote and related analysis comes from the second. Readers of this blog might also be particularly interested in the fourth, and what it says about FDA’s attitude toward regulating e-cigarettes and tobacco products in general.

Finally, I led off my new secret identity as a mild-mannered reporter with a basic news story about the (probably temporary) defeat of a proposed tax on vapor products in Connecticut.

So please go check some or all of these out if you have not. While you are there, please check out the other reporting in The Daily Vaper and consider following it on social media or via email subscription.


Sunday Science Lesson: Misconceptions about the gateway effect

by Carl V Phillips

Disturbingly close to 100% of writings about whether there is a gateway effect among tobacco products, particularly about e-cigarettes being a gateway to smoking, are nonsense. That includes most metas on the topic, where someone tries to explain what mistakes others are making. Perhaps addressing a few simple misconceptions can clear some of this up (and it is a favor to a few of my tweeps — I hope I have addressed all the points our conversation left hanging). I have written about all of this much more extensively and comprehensively (see this in particular), but not in soundbite form. Continue reading

“E-cigarettes are a gateway” is a genuine scientific claim

by Carl V Phillips

The latest entrant into the Dunning-Kruger gateway follies is ASH Wales, with this report that is headlined, “New research shows e-cigarettes are not a gateway for young people to take up smoking”. What evidence do they present that supports this remarkable claim that a universal negative is true? None.

The gateway claim, that using e-cigarettes causes some would-be never-smokers to smoke, is a legitimate scientific hypothesis. As such, it should not be asserted to be true (to a nontrivial extent) without useful evidence, especially since it is such an unlikely causal sequence, as I have explained elsewhere. The assertions that gateway effects are occurring have been based on evidence that does not actually show that. This is certainly the major problem in this area. But similarly, the claim should not be dismissed with word games or junk science. In this particular case, ASH Wales — like many others before them — seem to not understand a 101-level point from epidemiology, the difference between “not many people are at risk” and “it never happens among those who are at risk.” They claim that because a large majority of e-cigarette users among teens have already smoked, there is therefore no gateway effect. Um, yeah.  Continue reading

Next round of gateway claims

by Carl V Phillips

Tomorrow a new paper about the supposed gateway effect from e-cigarettes will come out of “embargo”. Over the last few days, Clive Bates and Michael Siegel have published pre-rebuttals of it (Clive basically declared as much on Twitter. Mike did not, but the timing seems like more than coincidence.) Sometime I will analyze the paper based on the framework I developed for assessing whether evidence actually supports a gateway claim (which the authors of the paper ignored). For now it is interesting to go meta. Continue reading

Is “ecigs are a gateway” the new “addiction”? (i.e., fiercely debated in the absence of defining the term)

by Carl V Phillips

Just a quick note to vent my amusement about the never-ending war of commentaries about whether e-cigarettes are a gateway to smoking. That war apes a scientific debate, but it is not one for several reasons. Most notably, no one (on either side) ever explains what they would mean by “there is a gateway effect.” There are also serious problems about what would constitute useful evidence.

I suppose you don’t vent amusement, do you? You vent frustration. And it is frustrating that I recently spelled most of this out and yet even the ostensible scientists in the debate do not seem to have bothered to read that or any of the other serious scientific analysis on the topic. And they won’t read this either, so it does not seem to merely be a matter of tl;dr. I blame social media and the motivations it creates to write without doing the reading. And the thirty-second news cycle. And blogs. And Twitter. Also, would you kids please be so kind as to get off my lawn. Continue reading

Sunday Science Lesson: Identifying bullshit is usually easy (it just seldom happens in tobacco-land)

by Carl V Phillips

In the previous post, I quoted from Jon Stewart’s farewell monologue in which he alluded to how it is usually relatively easy to identify utterly bullshit claims and call them out. This includes utterly junk science. There are stories of master fraudsters in science, who carefully cook data and convince the world for years they have made game-changing discoveries, only getting caught after too much contrary evidence piles up. For some immediately detectable cases of junk science, it requires a bit of clever expert analysis to detect it. But these cases should not distract from the fact that most junk science is junk on its face. Continue reading

New Phillips-Burstyn-Carter working paper on the failure of peer review in public health

by Carl V Phillips

Our new working paper is available at EP-ology, “The limited value of journal peer review in public health: a case series of tobacco harm reduction articles”, Carl V Phillips, Igor Burstyn, and Brian L Carter (all of the authors are affiliated with CASAA, for those who may not know).


Background: A widespread belief holds that the journal peer-review process has magical powers to ensure that published claims are correct. While this misperception has limited consequences in many fields, in public health it results in consumer, clinical, and policy decisions being based on blind faith in the accuracy of published claims. At best, the review process is merely a couple of readers — perhaps, but not necessarily, highly expert — reading through a paper to ensure the research and presentation are reasonably sound. In reality, even this is often not accomplished.

Methods: We conducted reviews of 12 articles that focused on tobacco harm reduction published in a mainstream public health journal, BMC Public Health, consecutively during 2012-15. We each wrote a reviewer report of the manuscript version that was sent to the journal reviewers, as if we were writing a review for a journal. We then compared these to the reviews written by the journal reviewers. Additionally, we reviewed the changes made to the papers as a result of the journal reviews.

Results: Almost all the papers in the dataset suffered from major flaws, most of which could have been corrected, but none were corrected by the journal review process. The journal peer reviews were almost all inadequate and many contained no substantive comments. Those that contained substantive observations still did not identify most of the blatant major flaws that we noted. In the single case where a journal reviewer identified many of the major flaws, the comments were basically ignored by the authors and the paper was published with no substantive changes. Other than cosmetic improvements, the journal review process was about as likely to make the published version worse than the submitted manuscript, rather than better. Papers with no apparent value were published by the journal and the potential value of other studies was lost because serious flaws in the paper were ignored. Unreported conflict of interest was common among both authors and reviewers.

Conclusions: Faith in the journal peer-review process is misplaced. Even at best, the process cannot promise that a published claim is correct, but in reality it does not even ensure that patent major flaws are not present. In public health, the phrase “according to a peer-reviewed journal article” seems to mean little more than “I read this somewhere.”

It should be evident from the abstract that the primary study aim is not about THR. However, readers of this blog may be interested for several reasons. Most obviously, the case studies are based on articles about THR. But also, the idolatry of journal peer review is one of the more important causes of the persistence of anti-THR lies. Analyzing the reviews of the papers, not the papers themselves, was the purpose of the research, but that required assessing the papers en passant, which means that readers interested in that aspect will should find a fair bit of the content interesting (particularly delving into a few of the appendices).

Some of the material has already been covered here. The previous post was basically written as a footnote for the paper. The post about the terrible paper by Hughes (“Associations between e-cigarette access and smoking and drinking behaviours in teenagers”, by Karen Hughes, Mark A Bellis, Katherine A Hardcastle, Philip McHale, Andrew Bennett, Robin Ireland, and Kate Pike) was basically an excerpt from that research project. The extensive analysis of the Popova-Ling travesty was incorporated as part of the analysis in the paper.

There are few other papers in the analyzed case series that also fall solidly within the anti-THR lies category. There is this one (“Portrayal of electronic cigarettes on YouTube”, Chuan Luo, Xiaolong Zheng, Daniel Dajun Zeng, Scott Leischow) whose value lies entirely in it being unintentional comedy. Strangely, despite being a useless, silly, and badly conducted study, that was then written up as a political broadside that had nothing to do with the study results, it was probably only the 10th worst of the 12 papers in our case series.

Two of the papers were written to try to vilify snus. This one (“Snus user identity and addiction. A Swedish focus group study on adolescents”, Ingrid Edvardsson, Margareta Troein, Göran Ejlertsson, Lena Lendahls) is mostly just uninteresting in terms of what it claims. This one (“Predictors of smoking among Swedish adolescents” Junia Joffer, Gunilla Burell, Erik Bergström, Hans Stenlund, Linda Sjörs, Lars Jerdén) relates more closely to recurring themes from this blog. In particular, it makes the naive gateway claim that fails to distinguish between association and causation. This is particularly pathetic in this case because the paper is ostensibly about predictors and not causes.

Comments on the working paper are welcome, either in the blog comments at EP-ology or via email.

Gateway effects and snus taxes in Alberta

by Catherine M Nissen

[Editor’s Note: This is a guest post by CASAA Research Associate, Catherine Nissen. –CVP]

As most readers of this blog know, the gateway effect argument has been used aggressively by anti-THR advocates against smokeless tobacco and electronic cigarettes. They claim that using the low-risk alternatives will cause people to start smoking. Recently I have been working with Carl V Phillips on his paper about detecting gateway effects. He explains the logic of the claim and why it would be unlikely to occur in natural circumstances. But, as he explains, policy actions could manage to create gateway effects, either intentionally or inadvertently. Even then, he was able to offer only a few examples of where it might have happened. I am living in the middle of one of those examples, in western Canada.

As Carl has noted a few times (example), several nonsmoker experts on low-risk tobacco products have started using snus as adults because they learned about the minimal health risk and wanted to reap the benefits of the cognitive enhancement and risk reduction in neurodegenerative diseases that tobacco offers. While I may not be among the esteemed senior scientists he is referring to, and I admit I use snus a bit more for the pure pleasure of it rather than the cognitive enhancement, I am among those who took up snus use after learning about the low costs and substantial benefits. My grandmother suffers from Parkinson’s, and the risk reduction from it that tobacco offers is definitely among my motivations for continued use. I am also among the unfortunate few who have been pushed from low-risk product use into smoking some of the time. I am not sure whether this counts as a gateway case. It certainly is not an example of what the tobacco controllers have in mind when they make the gateway claim, since they are the ones responsible for it.

I have only smoked very occasionally throughout my life, yet I enjoy using snus (smokeless tobacco). I have a firmly established preference for nicotine, but I also have firmly established boundaries on how much I am willing to pay to enjoy it. I am a nonsmoker because the cost of smoking, health-wise, was always too much for me.

After Carl established the tobacco harm reduction research and education efforts at the University of Alberta School of Public Health in the 2000s (a group that would later include me, Karyn Heavner, and several others who have contributed to the field, along with Igor Burstyn sitting in), he, Paul Bergen, and some of Carl’s students launched the first concerted attempt to widely popularize the THR message. In response to this, the anti-tobacco people in Alberta shifted their effort away from trying to discourage smoking to trying to discourage THR. It worked. Today the taxes here on smokeless tobacco are exorbitant. I pay almost $25 for a tin of snus. A pack of cigarettes is about $12, less than half the cost. The price of a tin of snus in the U.S. or overseas is about $4. Under those economic circumstances, only people who are both wealthy enough and highly motivated would choose smokeless tobacco it in lieu of cigarettes. For a person of average means, this price difference is a strong incentive not to try THR, even if they are aware of its benefits.

I have a friend who was a very avid smoker, but armed with the knowledge of THR (simply because he knew me, and despite “public health” efforts to sow disinformation) and the desire to quit smoking, he switched successfully to snus. It wasn’t easy at first, but he became a regular user. As the prices kept rising, though, he moved back to cigarettes. The balance of cost and benefit in his case gave the edge to cigarettes. Eventually, however, he moved back to snus, despite the cost, because of his desire to be smoke-free. He is being punished for that choice, at a rate of about almost $5000 per year more than he would pay for smoking. The difference is because the government is charging him over $7000 per year in taxes on snus, a price he pays for not smoking.

It was much the same with me. I found myself strapped for cash and not willing to pay the cost of snus. My initial brief thoughts on buying cigarettes instead (as I talked about here) became much more prevalent. I caved to them and did buy cigarettes for a time. However, I found I could not smoke more than a pack a week because the health effects from them were so immediate and unpleasant. At the end of a week I would cough throughout my day and my taste and smell were affected. I ended up giving up on cigarettes and now just use snus infrequently. This lowers my welfare substantially from what it would be, and provides no benefit for me or anyone else.

Still, I am luckier than many others. There are countless stories around here of people who prefer smokeless tobacco and have a history of using it instead of smoking sometimes, and being tempted to switch because of the absurd anti-THR price differential. Many of them are also victims of the disinformation about smokeless tobacco and so think there is little or no health difference between the products. For me, the punitive tax on snus made smoking a more attractive option in the short-term, but near-abstinence was more attractive because I understand the huge increase in risk with smoking and because I don’t gain as much from tobacco use as some others do. But others will just choose to smoke. I don’t personally know any smokeless tobacco users who switched to being exclusive smokers because of this tax, but I’m sure there are some because there are many smokeless tobacco users in the region.

So we have a demonstration of policy actions causing a gateway effect from smokeless products to cigarettes (for both a nonsmoker and an ex-smoker). For people uninformed about the health benefits of THR, high taxes on smokeless products (and lower taxes on the more harmful alternative) discourage it. People respond to price in the near term, especially when they are strapped for cash. This is a clear argument for making sure that THR products remain at lower prices than cigarettes, not higher.

As far as I can tell, my story is the only published testimonial of someone who was never a smoker (and clearly never would have become a smoker) who started using smokeless tobacco, and as a result of that became a smoker (though only temporarily). The proponents of the gateway claim never give any examples of people who seem to be gateway cases, which is one of the many reasons that their theory does not hold up to scientific scrutiny. I doubt that my story is what they have in mind, however, since anti-THR efforts were the ultimate cause of this. Without those “public health” policies, I would not have become a smoker.

I am sure a much more common story is like that of my friend who was encouraged to return to smoking even though he wanted to switch, which you might or might not call a gateway effect. This same effect seems to have happened with electronic cigarettes in Spain. It may be happening with electronic cigarettes elsewhere (the UK, California), because disinformation about their risk is tricking many people into believing they might as well smoke. It could certainly happen if all or most e-cigarettes are banned, as the U.S. FDA has proposed.

There is a high prevalence of “natural” smokeless tobacco use in Alberta, probably more than anywhere else outside of Scandinavia and a few rural subpopulations in the USA, because so many people work in jobs where smoking would be difficult. Most likely they don’t know they are engaging in THR (thanks to the disinformation campaigns that are ongoing here). Some may simply enjoy the fact that they are coughing less and experiencing other health benefits from reducing or quitting their smoking. In any case, giving these people a good reason to smoke instead is potentially creating a gateway effect to smoking, and yet it is created by the very people who claim to be worried about gateway effects.